"This entire tracking system exists because Morph got frustrated manually counting their own nat 20 drought and decided to automate it."

How are rolls and spins tracked?

The system uses a dual-layer tracking approach:

• Realtime IRC Tracker - Instantly detects rolls/spins from chat messages as they happen
• Daily Log Sync - Syncs with logs.zonian.dev every day to backfill any missed data

Log data is authoritative—if there's a discrepancy, the daily sync will correct it.

Why is someone with fewer rolls ranked higher?

Rankings use z-scores that account for sample size. 10 nat 20s in 50 rolls is more statistically impressive than 15 nat 20s in 500 rolls. Simple percentages (20% vs 3%) don't tell the whole story—z-scores measure "how unusual is this result?"

🎲 What is the D20 "Unluckiest" formula measuring?

Nat 20 drought is the primary measure of unluckiness. The formula measures how many nat 20s you're missing plus any excess nat 1s. Avoiding nat 1s doesn't make you less unlucky if you never rolled a nat 20—nat 20 is the objective.

Example: 60 rolls with 0 nat 20s = very unlucky (even with 0 nat 1s)

🎡 How does PalWheel ranking differ?

PalWheel uses weighted scores where rarer outcomes are worth more. All outcomes have value on a spectrum, with PLATYPAL being the most valuable. Missing PLATYPALs naturally makes you unlucky—no separate drought formula needed.

Why do minimum roll requirements change?

To ensure 20+ users always display, the system progressively lowers requirements if needed. Starts at ideal minimums (D20: 20 rolls, PalWheel: 3 spins) and adjusts downward to show enough users. This keeps rankings meaningful regardless of timeframe.